The war the world could not afford was entering its most dangerous phase yet on Saturday, as the US-Iran conflict threatened to push the global economy over an edge that would take years to recover from. Oil prices approaching $120 per barrel were only the most visible symptom of a crisis that was disrupting shipping routes, threatening energy infrastructure, and generating the kind of deep uncertainty that causes businesses to halt investment and governments to scramble for emergency measures. Analysts warned that $150 oil — a genuine possibility if the conflict continued — would be catastrophic for the most vulnerable economies.
The Strait of Hormuz remained closed, Kharg Island was under sustained US bombardment, and Fujairah’s oil port had just been struck by Iranian missiles. Iran’s military had threatened to hit any Gulf energy facility with American ties. The foreign minister called on Arab states to expel US forces. Every oil-importing nation on earth was watching a conflict it had no power to stop destroy infrastructure that their economies depended upon. The economic cost was already running into hundreds of billions of dollars, and there was no mechanism for recovery as long as the war continued.
President Trump said in public remarks that Kharg Island had been effectively demolished and called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz. He simultaneously threatened to destroy Iran’s remaining oil infrastructure if the blockade continued and ruled out negotiations with Iran, saying the terms were not acceptable. His approach — maximum military pressure with no diplomatic track — left the global economy exposed to an open-ended conflict with no defined endpoint.
Iran was matching escalation with escalation. Ballistic missiles struck Fujairah on Saturday. Rockets were fired at Israel. Israeli warplanes conducted dozens of raids inside Iran, killing at least 15 people in Isfahan. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck by Iran-aligned militias. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Iran’s leadership was “desperate and hiding” and wounded. Iranian officials confirmed the injury but dismissed its severity. The International Crisis Group assessed the regime as intact and pursuing a deliberate long-term strategy that could keep the conflict burning for months.
The human toll added moral weight to the economic alarm. More than 1,400 Iranians had been killed in sustained bombing. Thirteen Israelis and roughly 20 Gulf residents had died. Lebanon’s crisis continued, with 800 killed and 850,000 displaced from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah. Six US troops died in an aircraft crash in Iraq. Americans in Iraq were ordered to leave after the embassy was struck. The USS Tripoli and 2,500 additional marines were heading to the region. The world was watching a conflict it could not afford, prosecuted by two sides that showed no inclination to stop, with consequences that would be felt by billions of people who had no voice in how or when it ended.