Donald Trump has issued his most severe warning yet to Tehran, promising a response “twenty times harder” if the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted. This rhetoric came as oil prices saw a dramatic decline, falling back below the $100 mark after a period of intense record-breaking volatility. The President’s comments were aimed at reassuring markets that the US is prepared to use overwhelming force to protect global energy lanes.
The crisis stems from the IRGC’s vow to prevent “one litre of oil” from leaving the Middle East while the US-Israel military campaign continues. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of the world’s oil and gas, has been the site of multiple projectile strikes on tankers over the past week. This “commercial deterrence” has effectively halted shipping, leading to one of the most significant energy shocks in recent history.
Despite the threats of escalation, Trump also painted a picture of a war that is nearly finished, describing it as a “short-term excursion” for the military. He suggested that the military objectives have been largely met, leaving Iran with “nothing left” in a conventional sense. This dual-track message—peace is near, but total destruction is an option—has left traders scrambling to adjust their positions in the energy markets.
Global reaction to the price spikes has been swift, with several countries in Europe and Asia implementing emergency price controls. Bangladesh has taken the unprecedented step of closing all universities to save on electricity, while South Korea has moved to cap gasoline costs at the pump. These actions underscore the reality that high energy prices are a primary threat to national stability in the current geopolitical climate.
As the conflict enters its second week, the focus is shifting to the possibility of a permanent maritime task force in the Persian Gulf. France and its allies are reportedly preparing a mission to escort tankers through the region once the “most intense phase” of the war is over. Such a move would be critical for restoring the confidence of insurers and ship owners who currently view the strait as a critical risk zone for trade.