Oil investors are bracing for months of uncertainty as the Iran conflict shows no sign of moving toward resolution, keeping Brent crude near $100 a barrel and forcing a fundamental reassessment of near-term price expectations. The combination of a physically disrupted supply chain and geopolitical uncertainty unmatched since the Gulf War has placed energy markets in a state of sustained stress. Without a clear diplomatic or military endpoint, the risk premium in oil is likely to remain high.
Iranian forces struck merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, fuel tanks in Bahrain, and port facilities adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal Thursday. Three crew members aboard the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree were reported trapped. Iraq halted all crude exports and Oman cleared its main terminal.
Brent crude gained 9% Thursday to briefly touch $100.29 before settling at $98, up about 6%. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has climbed from $60 at the year’s start to a peak of $119 this week. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28. Iran’s military warned of $200 oil.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from 32 member nations. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Trump pledged to continue military operations. Iran warned of $200 oil. Diplomatic channels remain frozen.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel from $66. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European gas prices climbed 7.7%.